Good Morning!
The war in the Middle East continues, with targeted retaliations from both sides, with tankers, bases and strategic locations around the strait among the main targets. Energy remains high; however, the impact on risk assets remains subdued for now. All eyes are on the inflation data we will get and whether the energy prices, especially refined products, will be reflected in the print. Peace talks have also resumed between the US and Russia/Ukraine, separately, with little progress so far.
The calendar is looking busy, with the ECB expected to hike by 25 bps tomorrow while US PPI is expected to accelerate by 0.3% Vs the flat previous print. On Friday, UK GDP growth is expected to slow to just 0.1% MoM, while US inflation is expected to tick down slightly. These two inflation prints will be the last data points the Fed will use to decide next Wednesday whether to also hike by 25 bps, with the bond market pricing in a hike as the base-case outcome, though far from certain. As always, the press conferences following both rate decisions will be equally important for gauging the future path of rates.
Important Dates
WE CALLED IT
BTC Puts
+112%
$79K Strike → Sept 7
NBIS
+20%
$208 → $225
MDB $400 calls expiring 8/21
+425.47%MRVL $220 calls expiring 8/14
+233.23%
SKHY $145 calls expiring 8/21
+155.36%DELL $475 calls expiring 8/14
+155.72%
MSFT $500 calls expiring 8/14
+51.04%HOOD $100 calls expiring 8/21
+93.3%LRCX $350 calls expiring 8/21
+107.34%
ZS $185 calls expiring 8/14
+62.96%GOOGL $347.5 calls expiring 8/21
+91.47%
TSLA $350 calls expiring 8/21
+55.19%META $560 calls expiring 8/21
+100.31%
META $590 calls expiring 8/31
+177.48%MU $965 calls expiring 9/4
+200%
CBRS $195 calls expiring 9/11
+187.34%SKHY $175 calls expiring 9/11
+82.54%
BE $260 calls expiring 9/11
+160.40%
RDDT $170 calls expiring 8/28
+548.65%AAOI $400 calls expiring 8/14
+176.06%
SPCX $138 calls expiring 8/14
+55.07%SMCI $40 calls expiring 8/14
+236.36%
MRVL $230 calls expiring 8/21
+134.81%MSTR $100 calls expiring 9/11
+238.36%COIN $160 calls expiring 8/21
+69.01%
BABA $140 calls expiring 8/21
+126.32%META $550 calls expiring 8/21
+103.31%
GOOGL $350 calls expiring 8/28
+92.79%CRCL $92 calls expiring 8/28
+85.29%
PLTR $170 calls expiring 9/4
+330.36%GLW $150 calls expiring 9/11
+147.93%
MRVL $220 calls expiring 9/11
+90.98%AMAT $500 calls expiring 9/11
+74.42%LITE $1,000 calls expiring 9/18
+117.27%
SK Hynix
+15%
WIZARD’S WEEKLY MUSING
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