Crypto Highs Until PPI..

What Just Happened: Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum in particular, have been on a relentless tear lately. Between record inflows from treasury companies, ETF capital, and Trump-era policy tailwinds, BTC and ETH were partying near or above their all-time highs. But then PPI dropped like a hot potato: 0.9% MoM in July (way above the 0.2% forecast), core PPI also came in strong at 0.9%, reinforcing the idea that inflation’s not done yet.

Down went crypto, Bitcoin dropped from near $124K back to $118K, Ether off even deeper, altcoins followed down the stairs. Volumes spiked, leveraged positions tanked, and morning chaos across DeFi and CEXs.

Pullback Context: Why We Wound Up Here

1. Treasuries Buying, Funds Allocating
   
   Public companies and treasury arms have become core demand drivers. This isn’t retail hype, these are institutional, high-conviction flows. Think debt-fueled purchases from “crypto treasury companies” like Strategy, media backers, and the rest of that cohort that collectively holds well north of $100 billion in Bitcoin and $13 billion in ETH.
   

2. Policy Tailwinds Were Piling Up
   
   Pro-crypto levers like Trump’s 401(k) EO, stablecoin legislation, and ETF approvals weren’t just positive headlines; they were a narrative scaffold for institutional legitimacy and inflows.
   

3. Then PPI Threw Up a Red Flag
   
   Inflation looks hotter than cooling. Suddenly, rate cut bets got dialed back. Crypto, being treated like a risk asset, took the blow straight to the face.

What Could Happen Over the Next Few Weeks

Here’s how I’m thinking about it:

Scenario A: Macro Chill → Rally Resumes

• Markets digest PPI, inflation signals slow. Fed cut bets re-enter. Crypto jumps back to $130K+, altcoin pulse returns, and volatility dampens.
  

• Monitor: Treasury yields, CPI/retail data, and dovish Fed commentary.

Scenario B: Prolonged Macro Heat → Grind Lower

• If inflation stays sticky, Fed stays hawkish. Crypto could trade sideways or sell lower into that $105K–$110K zone.
  

• Watch: Q3 earnings guidance, real Fed language.

Scenario C: Wash-and-Rinse Short Squeeze

• Crypto dips on PPI, but then smart money flashes entry on low leverage. BTC pumps, ETH shorts get squeezed, altcoins spike on rotation. Fast bounce, then flat.

Scenario D: Idiosyncratic Alt-Leap

• Crypto treasuries buy Bitcoin; ETH steals the show thanks to ETF flows. Bitcoin stays rangebound, but Ethereum and DeFi tokens run independently.

What You Should Be Watching Right Now

• Fed rate odds: any slip or bump in cut expectations moves crypto.
  

• ETF & corporate treasury flow data: who’s buying and when.
  

• Altcoin pulse, especially ETH; it’s flirting with all-time highs and might carry the next leg higher if momentum shifts there.
  

• Macro follow-ups: CPI, retail sales, rate-speak. Too hot, and markets grind. Cooler, and get ready for lift-off.

Bottom line: Crypto just had a hunger-induced stumble before its next leg up. If inflation fears fade fast, this pullback could just be a staging ground. If not, expect a prolonged hangover. Keep your eyes peeled and your entries planned—this is where the real tactical trades live.