The crypto market is coming off a brutal stretch. Bitcoin just wrapped up one of its worst quarters in years, sliding over 30% to drop below the $58,000 mark, while altcoins have taken an even heavier beating. 

The current downturn isn’t due to a single catalyst; rather, it’s a perfect storm of structural shifts, regulatory deadlines, and macroeconomic pressures colliding at once.

It’s that rare alignment where everything hits the order books at the exact same time, creating a massive liquidity vacuum.

Solana, however, seems to be making a move. On-chain speculative retail activity seems to be back up. Driven by massive launches like the ANSEM token (which quickly shot to a $170 million market cap), the daily number of new token listings on Solana just hit an 80-day high. Because every new token pool and transaction requires SOL, this speculative frenzy keeps the underlying asset in constant demand. Once this breaks, Solana should take a huge hit. I like scaling into some Solana shorts as weakness builds, but I have to be careful, since the Bitcoin pump can push everything higher. 

Right now, with the market so choppy and summer volume across the board coming down, I like being lighter in crypto and risk. I cut down some positions and am waiting for lower bids as Bitcoin touches potentially 52k to get back in.

Though the S&P had a tough week (off ~2%), if you look under the hood more stock actually advanced then declined, with the S&P 500 equal-weighted index (RSP) up ~1% for the week, signally an improvement in market breadth (which is a positive for us in equity markets land) despite the middling performance of the MAG7 and a mini-correction observed in crowded momentum/high-beta stocks.

On the crowded trade front, I saw one of our members asking whether MRVL was a solid buy during the week at ~$270. While I am not discouraging curiosity in the chats and promoting bouncing ideas off each other, to me, this is indicative of a crowded trade after we first initiated a long position in MRVL back in June 2023 at around the $60 level, and it shows just how far these stocks have run. I am finding it very hard to find any decent opportunities in the sector, and would caution against chasing this momentum, as it is a good way to get burnt.

Elsewhere, bond yields were down for a third week in a row with the 10y-2y curve continuing to narrow to ~27bps (this curve is a key indicator to follow us it reflects the markets expectation for future growth & inflation, with a negative spread signalling the market expects the Fed to cut rates, signalling a potential recession) with bond investors seemingly starting to factor in the feedback of nearly two Fed hikes priced in over the next year, which has hurt copper and gold prices lately.

On the gold front, an interesting snippet I heard this week: the options market is pricing the same probability of 6 rate hikes over the next 10 meetings as a rate cut over the next 10 meetings. This suggests to me that the pendulum has swung far too hawkishly and likely caused an overcorrection, which has subsequently created a buying opportunity in gold. Further supporting this view is that the gold price has found strong support at the $4,000 level (more on Gold below). 

Below, I'll discuss two areas in commodities I think have been oversold on sentiment and see contrarian opportunities. That said, I am still broadly cautious on the market and not looking to allocate a large amount of risk at the moment, with the vast majority of our bets in the AI/high-beta sectors (e.g., SHAZ, AIB, VIVO) already placed.

Further pressure in Lithium in the physical with SMM -4% $2180/t on Friday and Platts Ave $2140/t -4%, but Futures flat with Subs Sat morning, “While sentiment is pessimistic in the short term, expectations for late Q3 and Q4 remain positive due to solid demand. If prices fall further, buying interest may emerge. Strong demand is there, but ample supply is limiting confidence in price increases. Prices are likely to fluctuate in the Yuan 150,000-170,000/mt range in the near term,” a Shanghai-based trader said. 

We provided an update during the week in the TG chat on our 'Lithium Market Musings,' where weak sentiment was driven by:

Considering the above, it would seem to me that futures and spot pricing markets are driven by speculation and sentiment and do not reflect underlying fundamentals. These kinds of divergences are where we like to get involved, as these are the setups which drive long-term performance and capture alpha.

Following on from our points on the Gold price and swings in sentiment above, it's important to remember that six months ago you couldn't talk to anyone about markets in a social setting without someone telling you the gold price was going to $10,000/oz, and sure enough since we've seen this correct since Q1 and all the big sell-side banks trim their gold price forecasts, with Goldman being the last to do so this past week, cutting their forecast to $4,900/oz by year end, which remarkably is still ~20% above today's levels. 

With central banks still buying what they can get their hands on (China's been adding to its stockpile every month for the past 18 months) and the US fiscal deficit still widening, I think the floor's underneath us and will be positioning for a sentiment flip into positive July-September seasonality.

This is how I am/have positioned

ISM Manufacturing PMI numbers come out tomorrow (Wednesday) at 10:00 am EST. Consensus 53.8 versus 54.0 prior (above 50 means factory activity is expanding). The prices-paid sub-index, seen easing to 77.7 from 82.1, is the inflation tell to watch given the oil rollover. Fed Chairman Warsh also speaks tomorrow at 9:00 am - this is the first read on whether the new leadership's tough 2% talk softens now that energy pressure has eased. Any dovish tilt would relieve 30-year Treasury yields. Non-farm payrolls (Thursday 8:30 AM EST) Consensus is 110K new jobs versus 172K prior, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.3%. A soft print feeds the less hawkish Fed read and bids up $TLT. A hot one revives rate-hike pricing. Regarding what’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz, exports are back to roughly two-thirds of normal, and the speed of the refill is driving oil, energy equities, and inflation readings.

As we flip the calendar to July, seasonality has a bullish feel to it (at least to start). Historically, July ranks as the 3rd- or 4th-best month for the S&P since 1950, averaging gains of around 1.2–1.5%, and the index has posted positive July returns in each of the last 10 years. More specifically, the NASDAQ's "12-Day Midyear Rally" (spanning the last three trading days of June through the first nine of July) has fired 78% of the time since 1985, averaging a 2.5% gain. That window is open right now, so let’s try to get the advantage of that spurt, especially with America’s 250th birthday this weekend! 

With the S&P having already notched 24 ATHs in the first half of 2026, history says there's more runway. In prior years, when the index hit that many records by June, it gained an additional 6% in the second half of the year 80% of the time. CFRA is calling for industrials and tech to lead the charge in H2, citing persistent demand for AI infrastructure and a foundation for an earnings-driven rally that's healthier than multiple expansion.

Some intriguing spot/LEAP plays that I’m eyeing:

Despite the horrible LTF PA, the HTF looks quite simple. We have been forming ranges and then sweeping the range lows. This presents some good opportunities to long SFPs on the H4.

We have identified a solid level: the previous week's low. Considering how things have been developing, my play is to look for a scalp long around that previous week's low.

If we get an H4 SFP at the level marked on the chart, I'll market long on the H4 closure as an SFP, with stops below the low. The target will be 2R.

I have the same idea on Gold, too.

As stated on BTC, but I have limits for Gold instead of an H4 SFP because of how it trades.

I'm interested in BTCDOM. BTCDOM represents the dominance of BTC. Now, whenever it tops, we get some momentum in altcoins even if BTC dives. It's so close to the range highs right now, which is an ideal level for an SFP to top it for a few days or weeks. I'm trading altcoins based on this analysis. You can trade this coin on Binance. But this is the chart I'll be looking at in the coming days for a general basket of altcoins.

I really love how GRASS has been shaping up on the HTF EMAs. It has reclaimed the daily EMAs. The revenue meta might be back, hence many coins in this sector might catch a bid.

My plan is:

We find ourselves approaching the all-important point. The start of the quadrennial custom of bidding the $BTC bear market.

We’re approaching the level at which I’ll start my DCA: $54,000 per $BTC.

The market has been dead for months, Michael Saylor’s Ponzi Scheme STRC is under severe pressure (who could’ve expected this), there’s massive outflows from the Bitcoin ETFs, and yet I come here to sing a positive tune.

While we still have a bit more pain to go, I suspect we’ll find a bottom for Bitcoin this year.

Whether that’s going to be exactly in October as the 4-year cycle would suggest, time will tell.

The lower the market goes, the worse the sentiment will get, and the more certain people will become that the future is sad and dreary, and that Bitcoin will never return.

You’ll hear people claim that crypto cannot go up because of the AI bubble, or because institutions have left, or because “it has to go lower”, or because of a million other reasons.

I’m here to simply reframe all of that for you in advance.

Many people will refuse to buy, and you, too, will likely be hesitant to buy because you’re worried things will go lower, or simply might not come back.

But here’s what you gotta ask yourself.

Say Bitcoin is trading at $45K, is the chance higher that:

or

If you think the chance of A is higher, I simply ask: Why didn’t Bitcoin die in 2022, or 2018, or 2015, or even 2011? It has massive bubble-pops and collapses, yet comes back every time.

If you think the chance of B is higher, then it is +EV to buy at $45K.

This is a simple example, but the core idea is this: If you think Bitcoin isn’t dead, and will have meaningful bounces in the future, or even new all-time highs, don’t worry too much about a perfect entry.

Bear markets offer the lowest risk buys you’ll ever get. It has a limited downside with massive upside.

Buying during a bull market is inherently risky. It has less upside and a bigger downside.

Tied to the above idea, when prices are down 60%, 70%, or even more, there are only a few people who still want to sell.

While a shitty altcoin with high inflation might continue to sell off, most people who wished to exit Bitcoin will have already done so by the time prices are down this far.

For things to continue dumping, there needs to be not just a severe lack of demand, but also long-term Bitcoin believers who stop believing in its future and exit their positions. Which most won't do after holding through the whole bear.

During bear markets, we’ll eventually switch from Price-based Capitulation to Time-based Capitulation.

There’ll be a period when Bitcoin gets accumulated by whales, as people who can’t stand the wait give up. The price will move sideways instead of straight down, but people will still leave.

Fear is always present in bear market lows. This time around, I suspect it’ll have to do with Saylor blowing up and with the looming AI bubble.

We must remember, however, that bottoms are formed by fear and pain.

Last cycle, the exact bottom occurred when the second-largest crypto exchange went under. We went up only from there.

Saylor is not required for Bitcoin to succeed and is, in fact, actively harmful to it, introducing ponzi schemes and leverage into a system designed to avoid that type of garbage.

If the strategy were to blow up, it could cause short-term “pain,” but that pain would be an opportunity.

And while the AI bubble is a valid concern, Bitcoin and Stocks are not currently correlated.

And we won’t know when the Bubble will finally pop (or if it will even be absorbed by big tech).

We’ll simply look at our charts to tell us the future.

If AI fears are looking to materially impact crypto, we will see that in the charts.

The last point should go without saying, but I’m going to repeat myself.

If you believe that Bitcoin has a future. And in that future, prices are significantly higher than today (or whatever day you may be looking at it).

Then consider just buying some.

You don’t have to time the bottom, you can simply buy slowly over time and get a good entry.

The simplest test here is saying: Zero or All-time high. Even as I write this at $58,660, that’s over 1R.

That’s not amazing, but it’s +EV in my book.

My DCA starts at around $54K, and scales down as we go.

I suspect we’ll find good support around $44K and some reaction at the $48K liquidity level.

My final “load the boat” target is $31.7K, at which point I’ll do whatever I can to get more liquidity to buy more.

That was a lot of yapping…

But I hope you guys are smart enough to stick with the market for a few more months and do your future selves the favour of being there when opportunity strikes. Don’t let the prices or boring sideways action kick you out of the game now when we’re already 266 days into this bear market.

To quote the bros from the previous cycles: “Bear Markets are for Building”

So build some shit and work to stack up loads of cash so you can buy when generational opportunities arrive.

Binance Earn has rolled out a new limited‑time bonus tier for USD1, giving holders a simple way to pick up extra yield without locking up funds. For the first 2,000 USD1 you deposit into Binance Earn (Flexible), you can earn up to 8.5% APR, with any amount above that earning around 0.5% APR over the event period. 

This structure makes it especially attractive for small‑to‑medium USD1 balances, while still letting larger holders keep some bonus yield on their base allocation.

The event runs from June 27 to July 26 (UTC), and joining is straightforward: you just move USD1 into Binance Earn’s flexible product, and rewards accrue automatically as long as your funds stay in the product. Because it is flexible, you can withdraw at any time, which is helpful if you are actively trading or rotating between other USD1 campaigns. 

In practice, this promo acts like a short‑term boost layered on top of standard flexible yield, giving everyday USD1 holders a clean, low‑friction way to make their stablecoin work a bit harder over the next month.

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