Jackson Hole

What’s on the Table

Jackson Hole kicks off tomorrow, and it's not just another Fed speech — it’s Powell’s eighth and final rodeo as Fed Chair. The theme—“Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macro Policy”—is a clue: he’s likely to couch policy hints in job market language, not just inflation data (ThinkMarkets, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City).

Here’s what markets are expecting:

• September rate cut: still alive, but shaky. Futures markets still price in a cut, but inflation and tariffs keep waffling the outlook (Reuters).
  

• Framework reset alert. There’s buzz that Powell will pivot back toward emphasizing inflation stability first (vs post‑pandemic tilt on unemployment). That’s a big shift in central bank messaging (Reuters).
  

What Jackson Hole Has Historically Done

• 2009–10: Bernanke hinted at more QE: markets cheered
  

• 2020: Powell broke new ground with average inflation targeting: a regime change.
  

• 2021: His hints at tapering set the tone for cycle turns.
  

• 2022: That “pain” speech tanked equity markets, spiked yields.
  Tldr: When Jackson Hole moves you, it’s often because it’s an inflection, not just a speech (Reuters, Wikipedia, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City).

Scenarios for Tomorrow

What You Should Be Watching

• 2-year yield: did this spike or soften? That's your Fed moves proxy.
  

• Real yields: if they fall, that’s a signal for rallies in crypto.
  

• DXY action: a clean break either way sets risk appetite tone for the day.

The Bottom Line (in your words)

This is more than a speech. It’s the last chance to hear Powell define the playbook before he steps down.

If he leans into patience with inflation caution, risk does fine.
If he leans hawkish, expect repricing that catches a lot of hands holding risk.
If he pivots frameworks, this becomes a directional day for yields — everything else follows.