Good morning!
All eyes are on Trump’s decisions for the Middle East. An official ceasefire has been confirmed by both sides, leading to sharp declines in energy prices and risk-on sentiment. The key would be to see if this gets honoured and a bigger deal is agreed during this timeframe. The Strait of Hormuz’s reopening is also part of the ceasefire.
Labour data from the US last week came out stronger than expected, with a solid non-farm payrolls number and unemployment ticking down by 0.1%. Looking ahead, tomorrow, the US GDP is expected to print at 0.7%, a big move from the 4.4% seen for the previous quarter. On the same day, we expect PCE to soften and personal spending to continue to grow. On Friday, US headline inflation is expected to tick higher by 0.1% while core inflation is expected to rise by almost 0.7%. Next week, we expect US PPI to be softer than its latest reading but still in growth territory and China’s GDP is expected to come out at 4.6%, slightly above the latest print.
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INTC $40 puts expiring 4/10
+37.84%
Bearish on risk assets; showed intraday weaknessGOOGL $280 calls expiring 4/17
+60.57%
Bullish on risk assets; showed intraday strengthMETA $600 calls expiring 4/17
+32.48%
Bullish on risk assets; showed intraday strengthTSEM $190 calls expiring 4/17
+33.33%
Bullish on risk assets; showed intraday strength
COST $992.5 calls expiring 4/2
+63.83%
Bullish on consumer discretionary (safe haven) stocks; showed intraday strengthWDC $300 calls expiring 4/10
+30.89%
Bullish on risk assets; showed intraday strengthGOOGL $300 calls expiring 4/17
+50.67%
Bullish on risk assets; showed intraday strength
Gold — Long
4414 → 4781 so far
+8.3% unlevered TP1 hit
ZEC— Long
242.57 → 330
+36% unlevered
TP1 hit in ONE WEEK
BTC — Long
+2.8%
$68, 100 → $70,000BTC — Long
+4.5%
$66,700 → $69,500
VAL held as support
SPX500 — Long
+1.5%
$6, 540 → $6,640Gold — Short
+3%
$4,793 → $4,650
HTF Resistance
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