Monthly Report: November 2025

United States

Macro-wise, the focus remains on what the Fed will decide in its next meeting in two weeks. Powell hinted that pausing in December might be warranted given the lack of data; however, other participants have leaned toward continuing the rate cuts. As it stands, the bond market is pricing in a base-case scenario of another 25 bps rate cut.  Data-wise, non-farm payrolls surprised to the upside with more than double the amount of new jobs created; however, unemployment increased to 4.4% after being 4.3% for some time. 

We didn’t get any inflation data this month. As a reminder, both core and headline inflation were 3% year-on-year last month. 

Mortgage rates ticked up this month, reflecting Powell's hawkish comments and uncertainty ahead of the Dec meeting. The 15-year rate rose by 15 bps, while the 20-year rate rose by 10 bps for the month. 

Existing home sales increased by 1.2% month-on-month to 4.10 million, the highest level in the last eight months. Housing inventory fell by 07% from the previous month to 1.52 million units, equal to 4.4 months of supply. According to the NAR Chief Economist, rent prices have been decelerating, which will encourage the Fed to continue cutting rates and support long-term home buying. 

United Kingdom 

Very mixed macro data from the UK, which essentially reversed last month's readings. Earlier this month, the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, reflecting the mixed data we have been seeing for a while. 

On the negative side, UK unemployment ticked up to 5% from the 4.8% expected and also last month’s print. Retail sales also underperformed, dropping -1.1% month-on-month and reversing the 0.7% increase last month. Services PMIs printed at 50.5, missing the 52 forecast and the previous reading of 52.3. 

On the positive side, inflation ticked down to 3.6% year-on-year, beating expectations for a 3.7% print and lower than the latest 3.8%. GDP contracted by -0.1% month-on-month vs. the 0.1% last month and the 0% expected. Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2, surprising from the 49.5 forecast and marking the highest level since September 2024. 

The housing market remains resilient, according to the Halifax House Price Index, which increased 1.9% year-on-year in October, following a 1.3% rise in September and beating expectations of +1.45%. This takes the average property value to new record highs, just shy of £300,000. Prices were up by 0.6% on a month-on-month basis, more than reversing the -0.3% drop last month. 

The RICS Residential Market Survey slipped once again to -19% for October from -17% in September, missing expectations for an improvement to -14%. This reading has dropped six times in the last seven prints, suggesting an overall bearish outlook for the property market, at least sentiment-wise. The weakest links across the UK are in London, the South East, and East Anglia. The survey suggests prices will decline over the next three months, even though this has improved from previous months. In the long-term outlook (12+ months), respondents are generally leaning more bullish. 

China

China’s retail sales and industrial production both continue growing year-on-year; however, they are easing from their latest prints and showing their weakest growth since August 2024. Retail sales rose 2.9% year-on-year, easing slightly from last month’s 3% rise but beating expectations for 2.7%. In comparison, industrial production grew 4.9% year-on-year in October 2025, slowing from a 6.5% increase in the previous month and missing market expectations of 5.5%. Continued consumer subsidy programs and increased holiday spending have supported retail sales; however, uncertainty around tariffs continues to take its toll, especially on the industrial side. Surprisingly, inflation increased to 0.2% year-on-year in October, beating expectations of 0% and reversing the -0.3% decline the previous month, marking the first price growth since June. 

China’s nationwide new home prices dropped 2.2% year-on-year in October, matching the pace of decline in the previous month but remaining the slowest since March 2024. This is the 28th straight month of price declines. The main city outlier is Shanghai, where prices rose by 5.7% year-on-year. Monthly, nationwide prices were 0.5% lower, the steepest decrease in a year, after a 0.4% fall in September. 

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References

(n.d.). US Treasuries Yield Curve. US Treasuries Yield Curve. https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

(n.d.). CME FedWatch Tool. CME Group. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

(n.d.).Trading Economics. Trading Economics. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nahb-housing-market-index 

(n.d.).Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs. https://www.goldmansachs.com/ 

(n.d.).Bloomberg. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com 

(n.d.). FRED. Federal Reserve Economic Data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/

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