CPI is the headline event of the week. With the market already on edge about a potential "higher-for-longer" rate environment or even a surprise hike down the road, all eyes are on whether core inflation continues to cool.

With the labour market still strong, the NASDAQ went down 5%. The market is very on edge regarding CPI. 

The week closes out with a look at the health and mindset of the US consumer, based on the University of Michigan's preliminary survey.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Markets will monitor both the headline sentiment index and 5-year inflation expectations to gauge whether consumers believe inflation is becoming entrenched.

The primary dynamic driving current market price action is a strong labour market, running in parallel with sticky energy-driven inflation. If CPI prints hot on Wednesday, expect the market to aggressively price in rate-hike risks for later in the year, placing equity and crypto markets under pressure while yields likely march higher.

Conversely, hitting or underperforming the 0.3% MoM core consensus would be a significant relief.

For crypto on any major downturns, I like $NEAR at 1.5-1.8 and VVV at 15.5. 

Potential stocks I am looking at in SpaceX that perform well are:

Investors who miss out on the initial SpaceX share allocation are rotating heavily into public "proxies" companies that replicate parts of SpaceX’s launch or Starlink satellite models:

Rocket Lab (RKLB): Widely considered the closest public proxy to SpaceX's launch business. They dominate small- to medium-launch services with their Electron rocket and are actively scaling the larger, reusable Neutron vehicle. RKLB often serves as a high-beta vehicle for space-industry hype.  

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): While Starlink dominates satellite internet, AST SpaceMobile is a leading public play on the next major frontier: direct-to-device (satellite-to-smartphone) cellular broadband without needing a specialized dish.

Another stock I have been adding recently is Digi Power X Inc. (DGXX), which is capturing significant market attention right now as it executes a textbook, high-upside pivot. The company is actively winding down its legacy cryptocurrency mining operations to transition into a pure-play AI data center infrastructure and GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) provider

Overall, markets are shaky and inflation sticky. I am playing defensively.

Job gains came in more than double consensus while unemployment stayed in the low 4% range, reinforcing the view that the labour market remains too tight for the Fed to ease policy. That outcome effectively pushed near‑term cut expectations off the table and forced markets to contemplate the risk that the next move could be a hike if inflation fails to slow. Markets are rewarding capital-intensive companies that are successfully monetizing AI demand, while backing away from heavily indebted firms for those deemed vulnerable to AI disruption.

In contrast, risks are mounting for companies that cannot demonstrate a credible path to monetizing AI. Increased spending on AI infra, power generation, and related needs puts pressure on margins and returns on invested capital if that spending doesn’t translate into meaningful revenue growth. 

Broadcom’s quarterly results added nuance to the AI story: revenue and earnings beat, and AI‑related demand remained strong, but guidance and commentary were not far enough above already‑elevated expectations to sustain the stock’s prior premium, leading to a sharp selloff before a partial rebound. Lululemon’s update underscored softness in discretionary spending among higher‑income consumers, with multiple quarters of negative Americas comps and weaker margins prompting a repricing of its growth profile. 

A tentative ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped knock crude lower and briefly supported risk assets, but markets view it as fragile. Meanwhile, headlines around a record‑sized SpaceX IPO in mid‑June and a confidential OpenAI filing reinforced the sense that risk assets may consolidate until then as June OpEx approaches - historically, a rough time period for markets. 

Amidst all the volatility of the past three market days, Robinhood has been a tank of a stock (probably because it’s been crapping the bed the past few weeks, anyway). 

It’s been a tough week for the portfolio, off 14.6%, but I want to put that in context. We are still sitting on a very healthy +6% YTD return and a +67% rolling 12-month return, so one bad week does not change the bigger picture. The volatility was driven by a stronger-than-expected payrolls print, combined with the sheer weight of the SpaceX IPO and simultaneous S-1 filings from OpenAI and Anthropic, as the market struggles to size its exposure accordingly. Given the backdrop, I thought this was a good moment to give you a clear picture of where I am positioned.

During the week, our stops on both KGC ($27.00) and HL ($16.00) were hit, and both should have been exited with manageable losses of approximately 9-14%, respectively. Stops exist for a reason, and I have no issues executing them. 

I have also taken the opportunity to exit ASPI, NUAI, IPX, and IDR at $6.83 (+25%), $4.90 (+33%), $36.23 (+32%), and $32.77 (+15%), respectively, locking in profits across all four names. The goal here is to concentrate the portfolio on my highest-conviction ideas. I am now down to 20 core positions (each greater than 2% of the portfolio), with the remaining holdings largely legacy-free carried interests that I trimmed at higher levels. Most importantly, I am sitting on a 25% cash position, and I feel very good about that heading into what is shaping up to be a volatile few weeks.

If you can get an allocation, take it. Having worked on dozens of deals as a capital markets banker, my read is that the bankers on this transaction will be engineering the book to generate an initial pop through a tightly controlled, very limited free float. They will call it structuring. In practice, this means that as SPCX enters the major indices in the days and weeks post-listing, passive and index funds will face a near-impossible task of sourcing the requisite stock at a reasonable price, creating a technical squeeze. 

My base case is the stock trades up 20 to 30% in the immediate aftermath of listing before the dynamics reverse: pre-IPO investors begin to exit as lock-ups expire, stock becomes available to borrow (index funds recoup fees by lending stock to prime brokers, so supply will come), and the indiscriminate buying pressure dissipates. History is pretty clear on this. Mid- to late-cycle IPOs with enormous pre-IPO funding and no genuine near-term fundamental catalysts almost always retrace toward their last pre-IPO tender price. In SpaceX's case, that reference point is around $84 per share, based on the December 2025 tender round. I would be looking to take profits into the initial pop and then reassess around that level for a re-entry.

For those asking about AIB, frustrating timing, but you simply cannot win them all. I am not remotely stressed here. The thesis is intact, and I am targeting the $1.20 level to average down if the market continues to see broad weakness.

Last week's review:

NEAR: running in deep profits
BTC: stopped out
ASTER: still running
I cancelled the remaining orders since the market changed significantly!

BTC looks straightforward this week.

Options data suggests another wick down toward the 57k-ish region, which aligns with the monthly level we have down there. Coincidentally, that is close to our range low too. A sweep of the current range low and I'll enter a long position, which would kind of form a divergence in the oscillators as well.

A short position would look like this to me: a rejection at the VAL of the overall range, as marked on the charts.

Right now, it's in no man's land. These are the only two high-quality setups I see for the week!

SOL has been taking a beating for quite some time now.

We had a descending triangle forming, which resulted in a breakdown, and it is now below the overall range lows. My play on Solana is actually pretty similar to my BTC range low play!

I'm looking for a long position when the price sweeps the low we just formed and then reclaims it, creating a divergence. I'll look to play into that.

VVV is in an interesting area right now. Just by looking at the HTF chart, you can clearly see the weakness in the highs, which led to a triple divergence on the HTF RSI and AO. With the loss of the 50 level, I'm expecting a bit more correction. I do think the Venice AI play isn't done yet. I'm a buyer of the VVV token and plan to bid on the daily 200 EMA.

The play is to bid on the daily 200 EMA. Right now it's around 10-ish. The structure of this trade looks like this: bid on the daily 200 EMA ($10 right now), have a stop at -10% ($9 in this case), and target a 30-40% move.

This week, I have a 2R long setup on BTC that I will be taking due to its oversold nature and potential for mean reversion. BTC is likely to run higher if we hit our initial TP level, so make sure to leave a bit for runners.  

We will long the CMP of 61694, with a DCA bid at the 60000 level. Our stop-loss will be 58525, with targets of 67500 and 70700 for now. The next two major levels above TP2 are 74555 and 78000.

If we nuke to SL, so be it. RR to short isn’t there for me at the moment. 

LIT has one of the cleaner bullish structures on my watchlist. This name has been getting aggressively bid on over the last few weeks due to a rumoured partnership. Outside of this, major support levels have proven to be worth bidding, unlike many of the alts and majors over the last few weeks. 

Based on the bullish structure, I expect this to continue. But first, we must retrace.

Looking ahead, I am looking to bid the 1.42 level with a DCA bid at 1.39. We will place our stops at the 1.287 level, with a main target of 1.865 and more aggressive targets at 1.99 and 2.27, given the bullish nature of this ticker. 

A cybersecurity team recently uncovered a major exploit in Zcash that allowed people to mint unlimited Zcash coins. There was no way to know how much Zcash was minted through this method. While they do not expect it to have been exploited, it is very possible that it was. On this news, Zcash nosedived to $250.

This exploit has taken the wind out of Zcash, and we’ll be looking for it to trade lower again.

For Zcash, we are looking for a simple trade. We are watching for Zcash to continue grinding up in a similar fashion towards the $500-$525 resistance area. 

We will look for it to continue grinding up from here. If it dips before reaching the resistance, we would look for a topping formation there. 

A topping construction in this case would be a double-top SFP, ideally with a wick up to $537, if we're getting hyper-specific.

We’d look to enter shorts at resistance, with a stop-loss on close above $554, and targets at 2RR ($438, whichever comes first), as well as $391 and $305.

Similarly to Zcash, we are also looking for shorts on the other major privacy coin.

While it hasn't been exploited, Monero has mostly been pushed out by most institutional players and governments, as it is mostly just a crime coin.

It also recently broke its long-term uptrend. While we were previously looking for this to come down, after its initial pump up to 800, we were not able to get safe short entries.

Today, that (hopefully) changes.

We'll be looking for shorts in one of two scenarios.

We’d place our invalidation on a 4-hour close back above the SFP wick high.

Targets for this trade would be at 2RR or the neckline of the double top (whichever comes first), as well as $294. We’d hold 5-20% of this trade as a runner for the macro targets mentioned above.

XRP is in a macro downtrend, and we expect that downtrend to continue. Last week printed a weekly liquidity sweep of the Feb 2nd low, which could trigger a bounce. 

While momentum remains to the downside, if we see mean reversion before taking out the lows, we’d look to fade that pump.

We'd wait for XRP to trade back up to 1.29, then we could short it directly there. Alternatively, we can wait for a sweep at 1.37 or, if we are risk-averse, look for a double-top SFP as usual.

All of the above are valid entries, but if XRP first reaches the 1.618 Fib level at $0.97, that would invalidate this idea.

Our stop on this trade is a daily close above $1.39 or the usual close above the wick in the case of a sweep or SFP entry.

The primary targets are $1.09 and $0.98.

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