Gold $3500

Gold Just Broke $3,500—Here’s Why, What’s Next, and Where It Might Go

Gold is having a moment. It just blew past $3,500 per ounce, putting 2025 gains above 34% year-to-date. Let’s break down why and where it could head from here.

What’s Driving the Run?

• Rate Cut Expectations & Fed Turmoil
  
  Markets now price in nearly a 90–92% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Combine that with fears around the Fed’s independence, sparked by political interference, and gold has become the frontrunner as a hedge.
  

• Weaker Dollar & Safe-Haven Flow
  
  The dollar has dropped about 11% since Trump’s return to office, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers. Add geopolitical risk—Middle East, Ukraine, and institutional credibility fading—and gold gains new gravitas.
  

• Central Banks Competing for Sunlight
  
  CBs remain steadfast buyers. Countries like India, China, Turkey, and Poland are stacking gold, pushing total holdings globally to some of the highest levels since 2022.

What Forecasts Say

• Baseline Outlook:
  
  Goldman Sachs sees gold touching $3,700 by year-end, with moderate upside toward $4,000 by 2026 if safe-haven demand endures.*
  
  

• Bull Case:
  
  Goldman and JPMorgan say a politicized Fed or further dollar erosion could push gold to $5,000/oz—assuming a shift of even a small chunk of Treasuries into bullion.
  

• Gold Valuation Game Will Be Unforgiving:
  
  World Gold Council’s mid-year report sees potential upside of 10–15% into late 2025 if stagflation heats up or things get worse. If conditions calm or a peace deal happens, gold could give back 12–17% of gains.
  

• Technical Targets:
  
  WisdomTree says gold is coiled between $3,180–$3,400. They see a breakout toward $3,850 by mid-2026 unless support near $3,024 breaks.

What Could Take Price Higher… or Lower?

Scenarios That Could Push Gold Higher:

• Fed confirms cuts, or credibility concerns further escalate.

• Continued dollar weakness.

• Deepening geopolitical or fiscal instability.

• Stronger central bank or ETF inflows.

Scenarios That Could Weigh on Gold:

• Fed signals hold or surprise hawkish pivot.

• Dollar bounce or yields rising fast.

• De-escalation in geopolitical hotspots.

• Reduced central bank demand.

Why It Matters

• Portfolio Impact: With global bonds looking shaky and equities volatile, gold increasingly functions like insurance. It’s not a play—it’s protection.
  

• Crypto Angle: Crypto players often chase BTC/ETH; now we’re also watching if gold becomes the “safe-haven of choice” when things get tense.
  

• Tactical Level Watch: Keep $3,600–$3,700 in your rear-view—break through there, and momentum players will chase.