No portfolio changes today. We're staying patient and letting the market come to us rather than forcing anything.

That said, there's still plenty going on. Make sure you're keeping up with the livestreams this week as we'll be covering market developments, sharing what we're watching, and answering questions along the way. A lot of valuable insights get discussed there that don't always make it into written updates.

And don't forget, the Edge Workshop is happening tonight at 5:00 PM EST. If you're serious about improving your trading and understanding our approach to opportunities, you'll definitely want to be there. Whether you've attended before or this is your first one, there's always something valuable to take away.

As always, stay sharp, stay patient, and we'll keep you posted if anything changes. Looking forward to catching up in the chats!

Wow, a pullback. Novel word we’ve been using lately. It sucks our option hedges haven’t been paying off despite some index red, but we will persevere. SPY pulled back this week after an 8-week win streak, closing just under 760 today, and giving back roughly 1-2% on the week. The good news is that risk assets digested orderly, VIX stayed mid-teens, not much panic has been occurring, just rotation and some profit-taking. Gold and silver are showing interesting entry points here for longer-term holds, and I’m not feeling spectacular about what June has in store for us after a great May. 

Out of mega-cap tech, into everything else. Energy, materials, industrials, and Staples have been the YTD winners. Non-U.S. equity ETFs attracted record inflows in January as global investors began trimming their U.S. exposure. That rotation has not stopped, as we are finally seeing nuclear and uranium names catch a bid today. Tickers of notice are $OKLO, $NNE, $LEU, $UUUU, $UEC, and many more.

A single AI capex revision was enough to flip the narrative from "AI is taking software's lunch money" to "AI is software's growth engine." Goldman's desk is seeing real long-only demand, and now it’s finally not just hedge-fund cover. The honest read is that the squeeze leg is done, but the multi-quarter-long software investment thesis is solidified here for anyone willing to size for daily noise - Donny and I have been all over pockets of software growth to stash away from a spot and options perspective (looking at you, ServiceNow). Going long software while shorting semis is too noisy at the index level for a daily signal after this week's move. Longing $IGV companies to be outright in their summer earnings seems to continue to be a high-risk, reward opportunity

I don’t believe space stocks are over yet, but it’s a great time to buy under the radar while they're getting less talk time than in the past few days. ASTS continues to be my favourite way to get exposure to the SpaceX theme, and then through RDW.

SaaS is back, baby! Fortunately, we have been slowly positioning for this over the last couple of months and are now hitting our PTs for NET, OKTA, and TEAM.

The macro backdrop heading into June is genuinely constructive. My read is that inflation likely peaked in May, with the energy shock pass-through having been negligible at the consumer level and I am expecting the monthly acceleration to largely disappear from June's prints, which should open the door for front-end rates to drop 25 to 50bps and the USD to soften vs EUR and JPY, which presents a clean tailwind for our metals book and global risk assets broadly.

The market has spent the last two weeks repositioning hard toward higher-for-longer, but with 2yr yields already well ahead of the Fed, history is pretty clear: the Fed almost never refuses the opportunity to cut once the bond market leads them there.

As if this wasn't enough to boost our core software names and the Software sector more broadly (XLK was up nearly 6% for the week!), Jensen added a little more fuel to the fire when he declared That Software companies would be massive beneficiaries of AI and announced NVIDIA's first CPUs.

The big wildcard this month is the SpaceX IPO pricing on June 11 at a ~$1.75T valuation. Nasdaq's controversial rule changes allow SPCX to enter the NDX just 15 days post listing at 3x its actual float, forcing passive funds to mechanically sell NVDA and AAPL to fund the buy.

AI infrastructure has been a fertile hunting ground after initially identifying MRVL and ASML back in June 2023, and more recently with IREN (>10x return), SHAZ (~4x return) and NUAI (~5x return at its peak). Well, after searching far and wide over the past couple of months, I think I've found my next high conviction play. 

 I am initiating a long position in AIB in the $2.30 - $2.70 range, which presents a strong entry point after a sudden sell-off in the stock on no material news, likely due to profit-taking following a solid run-up since listing in March. 

AIB is a power-first AI data centre infrastructure developer that sits squarely in our core AI infrastructure theme, operating as an owner-agnostic platform - think of it as a landlord for GPU compute rather than a GPU operator itself, in a similar manner to IREN back in 2024, as the Company begins to shut down its bitcoin mining operations and retrofit its available DC capacity with GPUs. 

The Company listed on the NYSE back in March via a reverse takeover and currently has zero sell-side analyst coverage, exactly where I like to be first.

We previously marked the yearly VWAP as the key battleground between bulls and bears. We sliced straight through it and rotated all the way down to the first standard deviation (SD1) of the yearly VWAP. Options data suggests we will chop and range throughout June, so we are adjusting our strategy to trade the range.

Right now, VWAP aligns perfectly at two key levels, offering a ton of confluence:

We have completed a full Value Area rotation and are now looking for the Value Area Low (VAL) to hold as a support zone. Here is how the specific setups look:

The Long Play:

The Short Setup:

Pair Trade:

This trade is quite obvious in hindsight, and I expect these specific coins to continue outperforming the broader market. I have paired all of them against USDC and will be looking to scale into long positions on any decent pullback. You can trade it on Pear or add them individually on TradingView.

Coins included are: 

We have written extensively about LAB, uncovering how it was positioning itself to be the next RAVE, and it is finally approaching that status. However, with the market cap now hitting $7 billion, I feel the remaining upside is pretty limited. ZachXBT has been dropping non-stop exposes about the project, yet the price continues to climb with no signs of slowing.

The mechanics under the hood are getting wild. The funding rate on Bybit currently sits at an aggressive -2% per hour, making it incredibly expensive for anyone trying to hedge. This has created a massive headache for early token holders whose allocations are still locked; they have been hitting OTC desks all day trying to offload their vested tokens, with some even offering a ridiculous 90% discount just to find liquidity.

While I am highly interested in shorting this asset, I am absolutely not stepping in front of the train at these levels, especially with a funding rate that punitive. Instead, I am waiting for a proper blow-off top candle. In these types of overextended coins, which usually look like a rapid 20–30% spike that gets aggressively retraced. My plan is to enter on that specific wick, placing a stop-loss at the newly made highs, with a macro target of $1.

I expect the top to land in the $25–$30 range, so I am setting price alerts there to scout for an entry. Given how Open Interest (OI) and funding are currently stacked, I anticipate a sharp, volatile rejection similar to the price action we saw on COAI and AIA.

Bitcoin has officially broken support of the rising channel and the sideways-and-up price action, and has now started trading back down towards the range lows. While it might have a tiny bit of support here around 66.5K, we're really looking for the reaction around the liquidity levels, namely levels such as 64.9 and 62.3, as well as 59.6, the major low we made back in February.

This February low will be very important to watch for Bitcoin, as it'll show whether we can get another hold of this area and a strong reaction higher. Maybe we can consolidate in this region throughout the summer, or maybe we see this break further through, and Bitcoin actually extends into our big targets around 52.3, 48.8, and 44. Long-term, those would be major spot buys, where we start adding to long-term positions in Bitcoin.

On the altcoin side, we're looking for strength. Right now, coins like Zcash are up while everything is down. Hyperliquid, TRX, VVV, even TON and NEAR have been pretty strong performers as of late, so they are high up on our list of coins that we'll be keeping an eye on as the “strong” coins.

As for why that's important: when we're looking at the market as a whole, we want to look for longs on coins that are performing well and holding up during dips, and shorts on coins that are weak or underperforming during these dips. What we can actually do is, even when we have some uncertainty about market direction, and we're not sure how deep things are going to go, we can always bet that certain coins are going to outperform others. That's where we've been getting a big edge over the past few months.

Tron is nearing the support area of 0.318 to 0.328, which is a major area we're looking to hold as macro support. If this level fails to hold, we could expect Tron to head back towards lower areas such as $0.29, $0.266, and a bit below there, where the floodgates open towards much, much lower levels.

We'll be looking for a double bottom or similar bottom, such as a sideways-and-down bottoming structure, to form in the mentioned support area. We could look for some small longs if we're holding in this area. 

However, there's a big, important thing to keep in mind with TRX specifically: we have a monthly SFP print. It swept the previous All-time high and has created a double top with a liquidity sweep, which could actually play this out to those lower levels we were looking at.

As such, I’ll be entering my TRX longs as hedged longs, meaning for every dollar I long TRX, I’ll be short a dollar on a weak altcoin such as WLFI, GUN, TIA, LINEA, FARTCOIN, etc.

Betting on continued bearish momentum, we’re looking to fade local mean reversions on ETH.

If we see a single strong push up without first sweeping 1834, 1796, and 1736, then we can look to short immediately around $1954, with stops on a close above $2005.

Targets for this would be the aforementioned liquidity levels.

If Ethereum does take out the liquidity at $1834 and $1796 first, then we become a bit more conservative with our entries, waiting for a 4-hour double top liquidity sweep to form around the $1935 or $1981 levels.

We would want to see proper resistance in action through this topping formation before entering and setting our stop at a 4-hour close above the liquidity sweep/SFP high.

Targets would be the body lows from the initial dump and the final liquidity level at $1736.

SUI has been underperforming quite a bit lately, but on the current daily chart, it appears a bit overextended to the downside. 

Currently, it's approaching liquidity levels at the lows, but today’s close has not taken out the major liquidity level at 0.788. 

If Wednesday's daily candle moves below $0.788 but closes back above $0.79, we'd be looking for a mean-reversion long with a primary target around $0.9, with runners to $0.966 and $1.02.

We’d run a stop on a close below the wick created by the liquidity sweep of tomorrow's daily candle. 

If the wick is so large that we cannot achieve a risk-to-reward of 1.5 or higher with our stop and 90-cent target, that would invalidate this idea, as it is a riskier setup.

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