This is the absolute centrepiece of the week. It marks Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first interest rate decision at the helm.  

The Expectation: The committee is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%.  

The Nuance: The macro environment is incredibly tricky right now. May CPI just re-accelerated to a 3-year high of 4.2% year-over-year (driven largely by energy shocks), while the labour market remains rock-solid, adding 172,000 jobs last month.  

What to Watch: Because persistent inflation and strong growth have effectively erased expectations for 2026 rate cuts, the market will parse every word of Warsh's press conference. Traders are desperately looking for clues about whether the Fed will maintain an easing bias or begin signalling a potential rate hike by December.  

Because we have no idea how the market will react, since this is his first time, there is nothing we are positioning for. We will be flat-leverage into it and then reevaluate.

From an options perspective, volatility isn't on our side, as we're seeing a lot of ping-ponging in markets within this range. My main thesis for 2026: (1) stay overweight cyclicals and risk-on in the second half of the year, with Europe a key catch-up trade, (2) MAG7 (and now 8 with SPCX) remain buys on volatility, but leadership should broaden beyond them, and (3) the pain-trade is a late-cycle move into consumer and Europe. 

Tomorrow’s a big day with Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting. I’m leaning towards this being a no-drama on rates, high-drama on messaging-type events. The committee is widely seen holding the funds rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, with futures and survey consensus putting essentially zero probability of a move tomorrow. Most previews think he will tilt the communication a notch more hawkish by downplaying the odds of cuts, acknowledging that the balance of risks has shifted toward inflation, and allowing the dots to show a non‑trivial minority of members pencilling in at least one hike later this year.

At the same time, based on his past criticism of detailed forward guidance, he is likely to emphasize data‑dependence and avoid strong commitments about the exact path of rates, which could introduce some short‑term volatility as markets learn his style but ultimately anchor expectations around “higher for longer, with optionality to hike if needed.”

A tough week for the portfolio, off 14.6%, but I want to put that in context. We are still sitting on a very healthy +6% YTD return and a +67% rolling 12-month return, so one bad week does not change the bigger picture. The volatility was driven by a stronger-than-expected payrolls print, combined with the sheer weight of the SpaceX IPO and simultaneous S-1 filings from OpenAI and Anthropic, as the market struggles to size its exposure accordingly. Given the backdrop, I thought this was a good moment to give you a clear picture of where I am positioned. 

During the week, our stops on both KGC ($27.00) and HL ($16.00) were hit, and both should have been exited with manageable losses of approximately 9-14%, respectively. Stops exist for a reason, and I have no issues executing them. 

I have also taken the opportunity to exit ASPI, NUAI, IPX, and IDR at $6.83 (+25%), $4.90 (+33%), $36.23 (+32%), and $32.77 (+15%), respectively, locking in profits across all four names. The goal here is to concentrate the portfolio on my highest-conviction ideas. I am now down to 20 core positions (each greater than 2% of the portfolio), with the remaining holdings largely legacy-free carried interests that I trimmed at higher levels. Most importantly, I am sitting on a 25% cash position, and I feel very good about that heading into what is shaping up to be a volatile few weeks.

If you can get an allocation, take it. Having worked on dozens of deals as a capital markets banker, my read is that the bankers on this transaction will be engineering the book to generate an initial pop through a tightly controlled, very limited free float. They will call it structuring. In practice, this means that as SPCX enters the major indices in the days and weeks post-listing, passive and index funds will face a near-impossible task of sourcing the requisite stock at a reasonable price, creating a technical squeeze.

My base case is the stock trades up 20 to 30% in the immediate aftermath of listing before the dynamics reverse: pre-IPO investors begin to exit as lock-ups expire, stock becomes available to borrow (index funds recoup fees by lending stock to prime brokers, so supply will come), and the indiscriminate buying pressure dissipates. History is pretty clear on this. Mid- to late-cycle IPOs with enormous pre-IPO funding and no genuine near-term fundamental catalysts almost always retrace toward their last pre-IPO tender price. In SpaceX's case, that reference point is around $84 per share, based on the December 2025 tender round. I would be looking to take profits into the initial pop and then reassess around that level for a re-entry.

For those asking about AIB, frustrating timing, but you simply cannot win them all. I am not remotely stressed here. The thesis is intact, and I am targeting the $1.20 level to average down if the market continues to see broad weakness.

BTC: No trigger other than Long in the TG ( similar plays this week)
Pair Trade: Cancelled
LAB: Played Out!
XPL: Placed a new limit order in my channel

BTC is in a super tricky spot right now. We have closed some daily candles inside the previous quarterly lower band (upper right side) and the developing yearly lower band. We are struggling to close inside the developing quarter's lower band. The first two are positive signs, and a retest of that region has multiple confluences and can be used as a long opportunity.

However, if we accept within the lower bands, we can target the VWAPs, which are currently in the 72k-ish region.

Regarding a specific trading setup, I would like to short the sweep of the Monday highs we have just made, or the H4 200 EMA, which coincides with the daily downtrend AVWAP. I think these are super nice areas to short. An H4 SFP would be my trigger to enter these; if we don't get an SFP, then a failed auction on the H4 can be a nice trade too!

On the long side, we have Monday's low, which is confluent with the lower bands of these quarterly and yearly VWAPs. The bet is on the price to hold a higher low for a potential leg higher. I have marked out the areas where I'll be looking to enter longs based on an H4 SFP.

We have been watching AAVE ever since the last edge call. I think AAVE is gonna be the next runner like NEAR. I shared my reasoning on why it can potentially outperform a few newsletters ago, and the chart now agrees. There are actually two ways to trade it. I have set a limit order at $67 with a stop at $60.

OR

We wait for the H4 trend to catch up to the current price, then we bid on that, as we did with NEAR. For now, I have placed the limit order and will be patient.

For the second trade, keep checking my Telegram channel. I'll post when I enter that.

HYPE has been in absolute beast mode right now. There is literally no second best. I think bidding along the H4 200 EMA and H4 300 MA makes a lot of sense, considering the unreal strength of this coin. I have layered bids ranging from $59 to $54. Stop loss on an H4 closure at $53.

I'll see how price develops around that area and maybe get us into some HYPE call options if IV and the rest of things are juicy enough.

I do think that it's possible we continue to grind up through our TP1 from last week of 67500, but we have seen a daily tweezer close. Although it was a short body, I believe that if we hit the now-inverted 67500 - 70000 gap, we'll likely see some sort of rejection in this range. 

In this logic, it makes more sense to short here rather than long our longs that are already in profit. I think, at the very least, it makes sense to reduce long exposure because the 60k local low is weak (according to the less aggressive bounce attempt) and has left the BSL untested at this ~59k low. This all depends on your personal plan. Many of you are probably buying these levels to accumulate long-term, which I actually encourage those close to me to accumulate within a 40-60k range with a 3-5 year time horizon. 

Since making the recent low, we can conclude that this is a failed breakdown (for now) and that it has remained above the 60k range low initially set in February. We consolidated in a rising channel, swiftly rejecting the upper range as we shorted the ~78k level and above, catching the entire move to our 60k target.

Since this move, we closed the short fully at 60k, which I mentioned last week: “I will be taking due to its oversold nature and potential for mean reversion.”

Within the same analysis, we flipped long at 61500 after noticing confirmation from the early deviation attempt. CPI gave us a boost, pushing us to highs of 67k (just short of the 67500 target).

This week, I have another 2R setup on BTC, but this time, a short idea. Should we grind up into that 67500-70000 gap, I will start selling BTC at the 67500 level lightly, with a stronger limit sell order at 70700 (likely with smaller DCA sells layered in between). 

This gives us downside exposure should the market continue deeper into the bear, without letting go of our precious cold-storage corn. 

Pretty straightforward setup on the 4hr here, not a mega bull on this ticker or anything, but I can’t ignore this structure. I am looking to open a long position in the 15.50 to 15.85 range, with an invalidation level at 14.67 and a main target of 18.22, resulting in a 2R setup. 

This can easily be invalidated should BTC roll over sooner rather than later. Keep sizing light but make sure to leave runners/re-enter after initial TP for a potentially major move back into the $20s and even ATHs. 

Tron finds itself teetering on the edge. The daily seems to be bearishly retesting the previous support as resistance, yet on the weekly, the important closes remain neutral rather than bearish.

This makes me feel like shorting here is bait. Instead, I would look to longs if we reclaim here, as that could bring in a lot of fresh strength 

So, for our trade idea, we would look for daily closes above $0.333, then go long on a retest and a successful hold of $0.325.

Targets for this long take us up to the initial reclaim high ($0.343), $0.352, and the all-time high.

Our invalidation would be on a daily close back below $0.318. Or, if we see a weekly close below the current lows at $0.308, this entire idea will be invalidated, and we won’t look for this trade setup anymore.

For EtherFi, we are looking for one of two setups.

The ideal setup would be a daily sweep above $0.406, with a large wick.

We’d set our stop loss on a close back above the new wick high, and we'd set our targets for $0.359, $0.322, and $0.286.

Our other option would be a four-hour double-top liquid sweep in the current area. We'd simply look for the price to sweep above $0.361 and then close back below it, ideally around $0.355.

From there, we’d target $0.322, $0.309 and $0.286.

Dogecoin is in a rising channel, a form of sideways-and-upward price action that usually resolves to the downside. We’ll simply look for it to trade into resistance and local liquidity at the highs to enter shorts.

A clean sweep at $0.091 could make for a decent short, but the safer idea in my book would be a close at the resistance with a sweep of $0.0925.

Stops in both cases are the same as usual: a 4-hour close above the sweep high.

The primary target is at $0.08835. We’ll hold a decent chunk of this position for a bearish break of the channel with targets to $0.0854, $0.0829, and finally $0.077.

USD1 has quietly turned into one of the better places to earn real yield in this market, with multiple campaigns live across major exchanges and DeFi platforms. The headline story is simple: if you hold USD1, there are many ways to earn yield on it, ranging from straightforward WLFI airdrops to soft staking and on‑chain vaults. Below is a quick walkthrough of the main opportunities, with extra focus on the flagship Binance and Gate campaigns.

The core USD1 campaign on Binance is still the anchor opportunity for most people. The promotion has now been extended to July 10, with a total of 178 million WLFI set aside for USD1 holders. APR is currently hovering around 6.4%, and the mechanics could not be more straightforward: hold USD1 on Binance and accrue WLFI over time, no complex farming strategy required.

Because rewards are paid in WLFI, this campaign does more than just provide yield. It steadily expands WLFI ownership among a broad set of active Binance users while reinforcing demand and liquidity for USD1 itself. For anyone who already uses Binance as their primary exchange or collateral venue, the main campaign essentially turns idle USD1 balances into a running WLFI stream in the background.

If you are chasing a higher APR and want something that still feels simple to use, the Gate × USD1 soft staking campaign is the one to watch. The current APR can reach around 20% and is adjusted daily, and the structure is as light‑touch as it gets. You just hold USD1 in your Gate assets account and earn an additional USD1, with rewards distributed daily.

There are no lockups and no complicated product tiers. That makes this campaign especially attractive for users who want the flexibility to move in and out of positions quickly but still capture a meaningful yield while they sit in stablecoins. In practice, it acts like a high‑yield savings layer for USD1 on Gate, but with daily payout and full liquidity.

Beyond the main WLFI airdrop, Binance also offers USD1 through Simple Earn flexible products. Here, APR can go up to around 10.5% on balances up to roughly 2,000 USD1, with rewards accruing in real time. There is also a tiered bonus structure running through June 22, which bumps the effective rate for users who actively opt in during the campaign window.

This is a nice add‑on for smaller or newer users who might not be running large balances but still want their USD1 to work a bit harder. It pairs well with the main campaign and lets people stack multiple yield layers within the same exchange environment.

On MEXC, USD1 holders can tap into a flexible earn product with an advertised APR of around 9%. The hook here is that you subscribe to Flexible Earn, receive WLFI rewards on top, and still keep the ability to withdraw instantly with no lock‑up period.

For traders who are already using MEXC’s spot or derivatives markets, this setup turns USD1 into a convenient parking spot between trades. You keep liquidity, but you are not leaving your stablecoin idle in the meantime.

Bybit has its own twist on a USD 1 yield through a “Hold and Earn” campaign. Users share a prize pool of 45 million WLFI simply by holding USD1 on the exchange. Current APR sits around the low double digits, close to 11%, depending on participation and campaign conditions.

The main appeal is that there is no extra effort once you are in: no farming loops, no active management. You just maintain a USD1 balance and let the WLFI distribution run for the duration of the program.

For users comfortable with Web3, the USD1 Vault inside Binance’s Web3 Wallet offers a blended APY in the low double digits, roughly 11%. That is composed of a 5% base yield plus around 6% in partner token incentives, with the campaign scheduled to run until June 19.

Access is via the DeFi page in Binance’s Web3 Wallet, where you select USD1 and deposit directly into the vault. It is a good middle ground for people who want DeFi‑style yields but prefer to stay within the Binance ecosystem rather than hopping across multiple standalone protocols.

Outside of centralized exchanges, Dolomite provides a lending‑based route to a USD1 yield. Lenders can currently earn around 10% APR in total, combining a base lending rate of roughly 3.5% with an additional 6.5% in platform incentive rewards.

There is still significant capacity, with tens of millions of USD1 in borrowable liquidity remaining. That makes Dolomite a more scalable option for larger on‑chain positions that cannot easily fit into smaller CEX product caps but still want a mix of organic lending yield and incentive sweeteners.

Finally, for users leaning into the points meta, the USD1 vault on Monad via TownSquare and Native is designed to stack multiple benefits from a single position. The vault currently advertises around 12.3% variable APY, paid in USD1 yield, plus the potential to farm third‑party project points simultaneously.

Mechanically, you deposit USD1 into the vault and let the strategy route that capital into underlying opportunities, while tracking and distributing both yield and points. It is a more advanced option, but for people already playing the on‑chain points game, it can be an efficient way to keep stablecoin principal intact while farming upside across several ecosystems at once.

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