I'll be live this Wednesday at 11:00 AM to share updates, answer questions, and chat with the community. If you've been following along or have a question, don’t miss it.

US equity markets remain uniformly positive at present, with markets looking through Iran war-related disruption and US data resilient on Jobs, Industrial activity, Retail sales, ISM new orders, with strong earnings supporting market moves higher (albeit highly skewed towards tech & materials), aided by surging AI/DC related investment supporting growth. 

In saying that, following a terrific beginning to lifted life for SPCX I'm not surprised to see some of the hot air come out of the stock after it added the equivalent of ~1/2 the value of META or >1x the value of its sister company TSLA despite generating 20% of its revenue base, so I view this as healthy pullback and tapering of exuberance which I think is better for a sustained bull run for the long-term. 

So, where does this leave us in terms of our positioning? My honest view is that we are in a no-man’s land at the moment, with most of the easy gains already made and the market outlook no clearer (to me, anyway) following Warsh's first meeting last week. Whilst I want to come up with some amazing calls for you guys, I feel as if we're going into a summer malaise with people protecting existing positions - thus I am sitting on close to ~30% cash which is my largest in quite a while as I wait for some volatility to emerge after a ripper run to pick up some bargains and continue the search for more great ideas to generate alpha for you guys.

On a more positive note, it was good to see AIB continue to catch a bid and looks to be gathering momentum after we caught the dip, doubled down at the $1.85 level, and lowered our entry price to ~$2.20, so we are back in the money. We also gained a solid entry in VIVO amid the volatility. With that Nordic leasing agreement imminent in the next week or so, we should hopefully see the stock re-rate.

China's decision this week to place MP Materials (NYSE: MP) and USA Rare Earths (NYSE: USAR) on its export control list in direct response to the Pentagon's military-entity designations is the clearest possible signal that the Western world's critical minerals supply chain buildout is no longer theoretical, and it is a geopolitical imperative. Every Western Government is now actively seeking to reduce dependence on Chinese-controlled rare earth processing, and the companies building domestic and allied-nation supply chains are the direct beneficiaries of this structural shift. 

With all this going on at a macro level, I thought it was interesting to see Richard Liu (Chairman of Chinese behemoth JD.com) come out and state that robots will replace the company's ~700k delivery workers 'sooner or later' which again comes back to our positive construct, that I don't think the sell-side has baked the demand for rare earth magnets for use in humanoid's and we are going to see a demand shock that should see the price of rare earths rise dramatically. 

While we still hold positions in CRML (Entry at $6.30 vs $10.45 last - TP: $20) and MP (original entry at <$20 vs $60 last, TP: $80) which I view as quality exposure to these thematics, my top pick of all the rare earth/critical metals names remains REA which I am still high conviction on despite volume drying up a bit on a lack of post-listing news flow which is quite common. We still sit in our $17-19 accumulate band, and I continue to do so (accumulate, that is) with REA remaining my largest portfolio weighting at ~14% (note I am sitting on 28% cash after the most recent SHAZ trim, which I am waiting to tactically deploy).

As a quick refresher for those of you who are new here and don’t yet have a position, REA sits at the intersection of all three priority areas: a domestic U.S. project (Shiloh) feeding into an existing licensed processor, world-class HREE ('Heavy' rare earths like Dysprosium and Terbium are the valuable rare earths that go into magnets that make EVs/Robots and are harder to find / process) resources in a stable Brazilian jurisdiction, and a blue-sky carbonatite exploration programme in the same region as the world's largest known REE-niobium system via Homer. 

The balance sheet is fully funded at ~US$79M, the 2026 - 2027 work programme is fully costed, and the catalyst calendar for the remainder of 2026 which includes a maiden resource at Shiloh, Scoping Studies at Alpha and Constellation, carbonatite drilling results at Homer means the market will have consistent news flow against which to re-rate the stock and at current prices, REA remains one of the most asymmetric positions in the critical minerals space in my view.

BTC is pretty straightforward this week. We have an H4 bullish order block below us, which is confluent with the developing monthly -1 STD band.

My plan would be to wait for the price to sweep into the H4 order block and form some sort of H4 SFP down there, and then we enter a long based on that.

OR

Let the price sweep that area, followed by an hourly candle closure back inside the previous week's low. That would be an excellent long setup!

One of the strongest coins in the market right now. We haven't been able to get in at $0.80. But now, after some time, we are finally getting somewhere on LIT, which has piqued my interest. We are close to the H4 200 EMA.

I have placed limit-longs at $1.46 and $1.35.

It's been a long time since we took a trade on NEAR, but I think it's finally time to place some limits on it.

NEAR's daily EMAs are curling up and compressing (we have discussed this at length in our edge calls—TL; DR: bullish). The daily 200 EMA aligns with the previous range low, and the daily bullish order block is just below us.

My play is to use limit orders at $1.72 and $1.55.

Gold has been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows on the MTF. On the HTF, it's still kind of bullish and setting up for a nice long. We have a weekly range followed by a daily bullish order block below us. Kind of ironic, lol, since most of the plays this week have more or less the same setup.

The play will be to wait for the price to hit the low and tap into the order block. I'll then wait for an H4 SFP of either that low (unlikely, given the way gold moves) OR an H4 SFP inside that block to trigger a long for me.

Perhaps the most costly mistake a long-term market participant might make is to possess an inflexible mind.

That is to say, being stuck in your ways. Unwilling to change your mind. Choosing to see only that which confirms your existing bias.

If you wish to see real success in the markets, do as we do: always look to prove yourself wrong.

Practically, it looks something like this.

HYPE & TRX have long been coins I considered bullish, outperformers, fundamentally strong, and “better than the rest”, and while that largely holds true… 

I am always looking to prove that idea wrong.

And guess what, it happened. The charts strongly suggested that major pullbacks were due for these 2 coins. Fundamentally, they’re still good, but if I purely listen to abstract fundamentals, I’m going to miss my exit.

We managed to exit some spots, take profits on longs, and close out the long side of our hedged bets right around the local tops before 15%-20%+ retracements began.

The opposite was also true for WLD recently; you might remember it was at the top of our ‘shitcoins-to-short’ list. 

But in mid-May, we closed out our shorts on a local bottom structure, and then, on the pump-up, we specifically didn’t add back to shorts, as we had so many times before.

Turns out Worldcoin made major changes to their fundamentals, and one of the main reasons we were short on it just became a lot less bad.

What followed was a 220% rally from the lows within just 1 month.

Now WLD will probably go lower again, and I’ll probably add it back to my shorts list in the near future, but again, the idea stands:

If I don’t allow myself to see reality as it is now, because I’m too caught up in pre-conceived notions and ideas… If I’ve “made up my mind,” I’m bound to lose a lot of money.

The final example will be the most important one.

Bitcoin.

In late 2022, Bitcoin was forming its bear market lows, while I was loading the boat, many others wouldn’t change their minds.

It’s actually what ruined the reputation of a certain Capo.

Bitcoin’s bottom in 2022 was obvious, but many traders had just spent a full year being rewarded for being perma-bears; for shorting everything, all the time.

They learned that all they had to do was be short and it would be okay.

It wasn’t just ingrained in their trading or decision-making, but also in their personalities.

So much so that when reality was screaming at them that they were wrong, all they did was double down.

These traders are now doing 1 of 2 things.

All this to say, whether you married a coin or got so caught up in short-term price action that you forgot BTC was already down 75%. There are many ways to fuck this up, but simply letting new information change your mind will help you a lot.

The best traders switch sides as the market tells them to, rather than staying stuck on a single idea. It’s a feature, not a bug.

If you’ve ever felt like you’ve “made up your mind” about anything in life, reconsider. Allow your bias to flip.

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