This is a heavy week for macro data, with a primary focus on U.S. inflation reports and several Federal Reserve speakers. Energy price volatility remains a significant underlying theme influencing the headline numbers.

We had CPI yesterday. The April CPI data released earlier yesterday came in hotter than expected, marking a sharp acceleration and significantly shifting the market narrative for the remainder of 2026. The headline numbers surpassed consensus estimates across the board, largely driven by a spike in energy and shelter costs.

The "Higher for Longer" narrative has been cemented.

Bitcoin dipped approximately 1.2% to the $80,600 range immediately following the news. While it reacted negatively to USD strength and rising yields, it has shown greater stability than high-beta tech stocks, as some investors view it as a hedge against currency debasement.

One of our big spot positions, recently, ZEC has been on a tear.

Zcash has been one of the top performers recently, surging over 33% in the last week and peaking near $640 before a slight healthy cooling yesterday.  

Privacy meta is strong, and ZEC is the main runner. Our new addition this week is $NEAR.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR): AI + Chain Abstraction

NEAR is riding a "super-cycle" narrative that has seen it outperform. It is currently trading around $1.55, maintaining strength despite the macro headwinds.

We are big believers that NEAR and ZEC will outperform most portfolios, and we have already been proven right this month.

What a week it’s been. I hope everyone has been printing from an insane past four weeks. A bit of de-risking today as the brief window where the bond market priced Fed cuts is closing, and today’s CPI data is the next leg of the repricing. Tomorrow, we have the usual PPI data, and on Thursday, we have retail sales data, which can give us a glimpse of whether record-low consumer sentiment is finally showing up in actual spending. A soft control group is the first crack in the “consumer is fine” story the Fed is leaning on. From a few institutional commentaries that I’ve read, hedge-fund leverage and momentum exposure are near 1-year highs while several desks see this as rally-chasing-driven, not fundamental (clearly lol). On top of that, hyperscalers keep marking 2026 capex estimates higher rather than dialling them back. 

The week of May OpEx tends to be chaotic like this. I failed to have a direct hedge given the economic data, but we’ll be sure to enter these consistently the rest of the week. It was a strong buying program and great breadth for SPX here off the 7340 call wall. 

Per the tweet below, the DOE's signal that it may finance “long‑lead” reactor components is positive for nuclear developers and suppliers, as it reduces one of the largest front‑loaded financing hurdles in bringing new reactors to construction. This, in turn, raises the hopes that projects from companies like Oklo (OKLO), NuScale (NNE), and SMR (SMR) designers gain commercial traction sooner rather than later - start scaling into these names now. I like NNE here the most under $27.50. Note that NNE’s earnings are in two days as well (Thursday). It’s very clear that nuclear announcements from the US admin are going to accelerate over the next 12 months, and it’s been quietly coiling here while indices/semis/memory names rocket. 

A graphic to chew on here speaks for itself. Traders don’t want to miss this leg up; retail barely buying puts. Do with that information what you will. 

A super quick one from me this week with heaps going on. Some material updates in some of our core names, which are our focus. However, good to see some serious prints from REA, NUAI, SHAZ and some of our precious names like USAS.

We remain heavily risk-on following the sixth straight week of gains (tech software index is +35% over the last 6 weeks). Look at SOX, Sandisk, Micron, Alts, equity issuance / IPOs (e.g., REA's successful listing, Cerberus, which had to pull its IPO last year and is now upsizing).

This is typically when all these signs indicate people are starting to move down the risk curve, signalling we are approaching the top of this trend. We could eke out some gains on MSTR, which should continue to run from here, but I am happy to take stock, remain disciplined and wait for opportunities to arise as we have over the last few weeks with REA and NUAI.

LIF delivered a solid Q1 print with revenue and adjusted earnings. EBITDA both beat expectations, though MAUs came in ~1% light vs. consensus, with  97.8M reported vs. ~98.8M expected, which is the headline bears will focus on. The miss was attributable to a technical glitch during the peak Q1 marketing window that suppressed new Android registrations in international markets. Importantly, this issue is concentrated in markets that contribute minimally to revenue, and demand signals remained robust during the disruption period. Google Trends searches for Life360 were up over 40% during the affected period, indicating platform interest didn't soften.

At $43.28 and trading at a discount to where the stock was 8 months ago (52-week high of $112.54), the re-rating feels overdone relative to fundamental delivery. The business is on track, advertising is real, conversion is improving, and the MAU glitch is a transient issue, not a structural one. I think the stock is very interesting at current levels. Would be adding as a long-term hold at $38. If you want a TP, keep $65 in mind.

As flagged in last week's note, REA came to market on Wednesday, 6 May on the NYSE American, pricing its upsized IPO at $19.00, the top of the $17-19 range, raising $63.3M gross. The Company upsized by 20%, increasing the offering from 2.78M shares to 3.33M shares, which I read as a strong signal of institutional demand. 

The open was strong. The stock popped to $25.00 on debut (+32%), exactly what I said to expect, before the fast money washed out and the stock settled flat on Day 1 at $19.00. Classic IPO price action. Since then, the stock has traded constructively: by Friday, 9 May, REA was trading above $24 (+26% from IPO) and as of this week has been trading in the high $20s, touching an intraday high of $28.40 on Tuesday.

I said last week I would be looking to pick up shares between $19 and $25, and I followed through. The thesis remains entirely intact: asset quality at Shiloh, the scale of the Brazilian portfolio, and the quality of the shareholder register (Hancock, Whitehaven, Arima/da Veiga crew) give this one a very long runway. My initial TP remains $35 (~90-100% upside from mid-range), and I see scope for that to move materially higher as Shiloh resource definition progresses and the US government support dynamic continues to play out. There is real execution risk here given the early-stage nature of all assets, but the risk/reward at current levels remains attractive as a position builds.

Q1 result was very strong and a beat. The stock traded weaker this afternoon, closing -3.14%, which is frankly puzzling given there was nothing negative in the result. LAC was -3% and ALB -2.13% on the day, so it appears sector macro drove the tape rather than anything company-specific, whilst LIFT, SLI and SGML were interestingly stronger. 

I'd use any ongoing weakness as an opportunity to add. LAR remains our best idea for exposure to lithium producers. It’s cheap relative to peers, structurally lower-cost, and unrivalled in growth optionality.

I actually caught up with management last week and came away more bullish than ever. I think this company is probably one of the most undervalued in the market. It has executed the smoothest lithium brine ramp-up ever and is knocking the lights out, will be spitting out C$600M of EBITDA this year vs C$2.5b mcap (Cheap) and is holding PPG on its books at a fraction of its mcap (~C$750M), where in private markets this asset would trade for C$2b+, which underwrites it.

These guys are producing 40kt LCE per annum at the lowest quartile of the cost curve, which will grow 5x to 235ktpa and could be done without raising equity. This should be a US$5 b+ company, so I am raising my PT to $25.

I took some profits at $10 after owning the stock for $2.50-$ 3.00, but will be looking to add more between $9-10.

Announced a transformational funding package, which included an A$275m placement to institutions and A$150M (US$100M) convertible note from Canada Growth Fund, which will convert at A$17.17 on the ASX line, which translates to US$120 on the Nasdaq line and shows you where the stock is going. I'm hearing the book was >5x, which is a very strong signal. I expect the stock to trade sideways/slightly off for the next fortnight once it washes through, and then should start to move towards the US$120 level, as the stock is now well-funded to accelerate production expansion. Buy.

I've noticed some pretty strong strength to begin this week, particularly in the silver names as highlighted by USAS (+34% 1W), and HL (+21% 1W), which I explain below. We are well-positioned to capture this via USAS, HL, Dakota Gold / DC (Entry $4.55, +39%), IDR (Entry: $28.50, +80%). Stay long.

I didn't stick the course and cut this one in the mid-teens; however, I just wanted to note that it has hit our initial TP of $26, so if you still own this name, I would be cutting your entire position. I don't have much faith in management to execute here, and they have been bailed out by sectoral tailwinds. You are better off owning SHAZ, CRWV or NBIS.

Recap: What a great week we had, AGAIN, shorting SOL multiple times for big wins in TG. We closed our newsletter SOL idea in the 82-83 range in TG before it ripped, saving ourselves unnecessary drawdown by stopping in profit. 

On Monday, we marked the top on SAGA in TG with a short at 0.064, which has hit 0.028 so far. Yes, -60%.

This week, we are looking for opportunities to short but are facing the reality that BTC is likely to continue its grind higher, pulling everything (even weak coins like SOL) up with it. Rather, the position is short and will likely skip any bullish local structure that may take form.

I will be shorting HYPE and placing limit sell orders at 41.37 and 42.05. I will place my stop loss at the 44.77 level and will target 34.54, and potentially much lower to 30 and 28 if the majors flip aggressively. 

This setup yields 2R and gives us quality invalidation and target levels. It is likely that our stop is never closely contested.

SOL is super weak. Likely, an HTF market short will work so long as the stop is reasonable. This idea can be adapted based on your goals and your bias toward SOL. 

If you are looking to capture the general move down, targeting 60-70s, this will require firm invalidation; therefore, more cushion and less leverage are necessary.

For the HTF idea, we will wait for confirmation of a deviation back into the 6-month range on SOL, which has failed to break (94) multiple times. Super bearish if we fail the swing higher. This logically leaves us targeting the mid- to low-range of this 6-month consolidation.

Mid-range is 83-85. Low range is 68-78.

This idea will trigger as we break below the upper consolidation range's resistance. If we show weakness, we may retest the level we have lost and enter there. This level is 92.63. Stop will be above the range highs around 98.8 (can be a bit tighter), with targets of 88.68 and 83 for now. 79.32 reach target.

BTC still looks extremely bullish, printing a series of higher highs and higher lows, as we’ve been anticipating over the past 2–3 weeks. I expect another higher low to form very soon.

Price is currently trading above the range value area and in the upper halves of both the quarterly and yearly VWAPs. The target remains a move higher toward $86,000+.

I’m not a fan of shorting here, so I’m focused on two long setups.

Setup 1 — Reclaim Long

Setup 2 — VWAP Retest (Swing Long)

HOME is one of the more interesting coins on my radar right now. Current market cap sits around $63M, with an FDV of ~$170M (roughly 3x), and it already has listings on both Binance spot and Coinbase.

The most curious detail, though, is the unusual volume on Huobi, consistently around $2M per day, which is unusual for a coin of this size on that particular exchange.

Technical Setup

Technically, HOME has successfully retraced the 10/10 wick and printed a failed auction. I’m betting on the next leg up from here.

Position

From a technical perspective, NEAR looks excellent. The chart is forming a higher-timeframe bullish triangle, and a breakout from here could deliver a 30–40% move. On the mid-term timeframe, it has started printing a series of higher highs and higher lows, with both the RSI and AO sitting in favourable positions.

I’m betting on price to hold the short-term EMA trend along with the broader HTF bullish order block.

Position

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