Good Morning!
Nvidia’s spy fiasco and rising expectations for a December Fed hike have weighed on risk assets, which rallied initially on the Democrat sweep but collapsed the next day. Crypto has held up much better than many AI and tech companies, with the general narrative that Democrats will penalize AI growth.
US Labour data has been better than expected, but US inflation keeps running hot. Energy prices have collapsed more than 20% from their highs, as Trump downplays the odds of new strikes; however, both wars remain at a standstill.
Looking ahead, the UK economy is expected to show stronger growth than Japan’s, which is expected to slow vs. its latest print.

Important Dates


WE CALLED IT

SOXL
+28%
$41.4 → $53IREN
+20%
$17.5 → $21
SPX
+2.5%
$7,322 → $7,518

INTC
$51 → $56
NBIS
$124 → $140
WIZARD’S WEEKLY MUSING



The recent midterms brought market volatility and fear. With the Democratic sweep, the AI data center buildout is getting hammered, but that doesn’t seem to be popping any bubbles.
The actual dumps we’ve seen have been limited to 3 main categories:
Assets with direct exposure to data centers. Think NVDA and data center construction companies.
Companies getting overextended on AI investments and losing cash. Think Google.
Liquidity-sensitive assets. Think crypto and the like.
As markets panic a little or feel uncertain, they take risk off, and that usually starts at the riskiest edges, like crypto or companies that aren’t looking as strong financially.
While we may dump a little lower here and there, I’ve personally started accumulating long-term assets.
HYPE & PURR
Rather than buying more HYPE after the recent Druckenmiller rally, where we locked in some beautiful profits, I’ve opted to pick up PURR instead of HYPE on the spot and in long-term call options.
As long as the fundamentals for HYPE don’t change, I suspect we’ll see it trade higher in the future; as such, picking up PURR around NAV, when in a bull run it should carry a premium to the underlying, while it is currently also down ~40% vs. HYPE’s ~25%, I think this is a well risk-adjusted bet.
I still hold some spot HYPE, but these fresh buys are entirely PURR.
I would buy more spot HYPE in the $60 range.
GOLD
Those who’ve heard me yap about long-term recently know I’ve come to like gold here around $4,000.
This bet is very simple: I want long-term exposure to a hard asset that isn’t Bitcoin. I still like Bitcoin, but I don’t need to limit myself.
The gold chart looks pretty good on the weekly, but as we should always keep in mind with GOLD, it can take years to finish consolidating and rally higher.
I’ve bought a size I’m happy with at $4,000 and have a slow DCA running. If we see bigger discounts towards the mid-to-low $3,000s, or even <$3,000, I’ll buy much more aggressively.
This is a very long-term spot allocation for GOLD that I have no intention of selling anytime soon.
The only realistic invalidation of my entire gold thesis would be significant progress in asteroid mining that makes gold no longer scarce.
RSG
A ticker we covered as a stock pick for our long-term portfolio which has been printing nicely. It’s a boring stock, but it makes us money.
We bought this WM competitor below $220, going as low as $206 before now ripping up towards $250. A short-term pullback seems likely and healthy.
If you have significant size, you could take some profits off this rally, but personally I’ll hold my position and look to buy more if we get a clean dip back toward the $220s.
RSG continues to be a long-term hold and looks good.
NUKL
NUKL is my current exposure to the Uranium and Nuclear sector. It’s an EU-listed index containing mostly large energy companies, some physical uranium, and an allocation to riskier ventures in new technologies.
While it doesn’t yet look ready for a major reversal, and lower prices still seem likely, I’ve made a sizable first buy back into this ticker after exiting in Q2 when the uptrend failed to continue.
This is likely to be a multi-year hold. While the AI power investment “hype” has died down, nuclear remains the best choice for energy and the only option we currently have that scales as efficiently and cleanly for future AI buildouts.
In other words, there are some short-term bearish factors for AI energy infrastructure, but I expect this to return to a larger uptrend in the big picture.
$37 seems like a good bang for your buck on NUKL. You can ask your favourite LLM for suggestions on similar ETFs available in your region instead; just check that their charts are similar.
Under $30, NUKL becomes even more interesting as a pick-up for me, and I’d add more.
Closing thoughts
The market is scared right now, but from what I’ve seen, my fears about the AI bubble aren’t as dramatic as they once were.
Many of the most exposed companies have taken significant losses without taking the whole market with them. NVDA nuked as it should, and may still go much lower. But companies like AAPL aren’t getting caught in a cascade of market-wide panic.
It helps a lot that AI money is largely in private companies and with private investors. Public exposure is much more limited, and so is the panic. Most companies with the largest exposure can also afford it.
The Democrat win also helps, as we’re less likely to see further extreme market pushes in the short term, which lets things cool off naturally.
Crypto continues to be in a transition phase. Short-term downside looks likely, but the big picture still looks good for upside. LIT also seems to be making a comeback.
TL;DR: The market is a little scared, but certain sound assets are getting to places where we are happy to start allocating, with great risk-to-reward and solid odds.
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