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Crash or Opportunity?
Issue #155
Good morning!
Risk assets continue to struggle, despite robust earnings and stable macro data. Nvidia reported record revenue that beat expectations and forecast a healthy Q4 outlook; however, AI bubble concerns persist. Crypto experienced another liquidation event, further underscoring its very high beta to stocks.
FOMC minutes showed a divergence among participants regarding another rate cut at the December meeting in two weeks. Data-wise, we got mixed labour signals from the US with non-farm payrolls beating expectations (119k vs. 50k) while unemployment ticked up by 0.1% to 4.4%. The bond market has moved to pricing a rate cut with more than 65% likelihood, up from less than 50% last week, as Powell’s latest statement on considering a pause hasn’t been unanimous, with the NY Fed leaning towards a rate cut.
Looking ahead, we expect Core PCE and spending/income data from the US to be in line with previous prints. Tomorrow, India’s GDP is expected to show year-on-year growth of 7.2%, softer than the latest 7.8% print. Manufacturing PMIs for both China and the US are expected to improve; however, they remain far from any significant growth, as tariffs continue to dampen sentiment in the sector. Finally, next week, Europe’s year-on-year inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.1%, in line with the ECB’s target.
Trade Ideas This Week
We cover the following tickers:
Crypto: BTC, FIL, ZEC, SOL, ASTER, and ETH/BTC
Equities: LRCX, OPEN, RUM, MSTR, NXE, LAR, and WYFI
Remember:
✅ Read the trading plans carefully
🔔 Set price alerts
🎯 Time your entries
Enjoy!
Table of Contents
📊 Crypto
🔹 Foxy
📉 BTC
– NL short entry at 91,566.4 hit the main target at 86,327 and extended as low as 80,600.
📊 Move: –12% unleveraged
🧠 Textbook continuation selloff with clean target hits and deep extension.
📉 ZEC
– NL short entry at 565.3 dropped to a local low of 481.24.
📊 Move: –15% unleveraged
🧠 Strong downside follow-through as sellers maintained full control.
📉 FIL
– NL short entry at 1.912 hit the main target at 1.724 and capitulated further to 1.544.
📊 Move: –19% unleveraged
🧠 One of the cleanest breakdowns of the week, delivering multiple levels of profit.
🔹 Daniel
📈 ASTER
– Long from 1.107 in money glitch chat, smashed all TPs 1.16 and 1.20
📊 Move: –8.5% unleveraged
📈 BTC
– Long 82k main target of 89k hit
📊 Move: –8% unleveraged
📊 Equities
🔹 Donny
📈 IPX
– Rebounded strongly off the $26–28 buy zone highlighted in last week’s NL and is now trading back above $30.
🎯 Target: $55
🧠 Solid continuation setup and a strong candidate for both tactical long exposure and core holding expansion.
📈 NXE
– Bounced cleanly off the $7.40 zone identified in last week’s NL and is now trading around $8.
🧠 Respecting key levels and maintaining strong sector momentum.
📈 AFRM
– Rejected the $60 buy level perfectly and is now trading around $67, securing a ~12% spot gain in under one week.
🧠 Strong follow-through as buyers defended a major support area.
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